US Consesus GDP Forecast

In September 2010, 61 analysts participated in the Bloomberg forecast survey of US GDP growth. Out of all the analysts surveyed, only one is expecting the US to go back into recession within the next few quarters. The median forecast is looking for the US growth rate (measured quarter-on-quarter) to improve over the next 6 quarters to a high of 3.0%q/q by end 2011. The most optimistic analyst is anticipating that the US will grow by 5.5% in the final quarter of 2011.

While there is only one analyst looking for the US economy to move back into recession, the average of the other forecasts suggest very modest growth in the US economy during 2010 and 2011 (2.7% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011). The latest consensus forecast is marginally lower than the consensus that prevailed a few months ago.

There are still a number of high profile economists (reflected in the media) that are looking for the US economy to experience a 'double-dip' recession, for example, Nouriel Roubini, but almost all these commentators do not form part of the monthly Bloomberg consensus survey.

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